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Home security research

The ASU Center for Problem-Oriented Policing's review of burglary research finds that "visibility and accessibility are more important than vulnerability or security" in how burglars choose targets, and that burglars "are less likely to gain entry when a house has two or more security devices." It also notes experienced offenders may proceed anyway, and that alarms mainly slow intrusions and increase detection risk.

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The research picture is more useful than the marketing one. Per ASU's problem-oriented policing guide, offenders favor homes near their own residences or routine travel routes, and properties near major roads, transit and shopping face higher risk. Roughly 60 percent of US residential burglaries occur during daylight hours when homes are unoccupied, with peaks "from 10 a.m. to 11 a.m. and from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m." — not the nighttime scenario most systems are imagined around.

Entry method matters for what you should buy. About two-thirds of burglaries involve forced entry using simple tools, with side and back doors as common access points, and about one-third involve unlocked entries through windows, basement openings or garage doors. That means locking up and reinforcing frames addresses a large share of the risk before any electronics are involved.

Repeat victimization is one of the strongest findings and one of the least known. Homes previously targeted are "up to four times more likely to be burglarized," and "any subsequent burglary is most likely to occur within six weeks." If you have just been burgled, that six-week window is when hardening your home actually has the highest return.

On the honest limits of alarms: the same body of research is clear that security devices have measurable deterrent value in combination, but that alarms "primarily slow intrusions, increasing detection risk" rather than preventing entry outright, and that experienced offenders may proceed despite them. Combine that with the false alarm data — 94 to 98 percent of activations are false — and the reasonable conclusion is that an alarm is one layer among several, not a solution by itself.

How to choose

Layer devices rather than buying one big thing: The research finding is about two or more security devices together — locks, lighting, alarms — not about any single product.
Plan for daytime, not just night: About 60 percent of residential burglaries happen in daylight when homes are empty. Arm the system when you leave, not only when you sleep.
Harden immediately after a burglary: Repeat victimization risk is up to four times higher, concentrated in the following six weeks. That is the window to act.
Make the house look occupied: ASU's review notes homes appearing occupied — visible activity, vehicles present — discourage attempts. Timers and a collected mail pile are cheap interventions.
Treat vendor deterrence statistics skeptically: Ask where a claimed percentage comes from. If the citation is the company's own marketing survey, it is not evidence.

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FAQ

Home Security research — common questions

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Do security systems actually deter burglars?

Partly, and in combination. ASU's review of burglary research finds burglars "are less likely to gain entry when a house has two or more security devices," while also noting that experienced offenders may proceed anyway and that alarms mainly slow entry and raise the chance of detection. It also ranks visibility and accessibility above security hardware in target selection.

When do most burglaries happen?

Approximately 60 percent of US residential burglaries occur during daylight hours when homes are unoccupied, with peak periods from 10 to 11 a.m. and from 1 to 3 p.m., per the ASU Center for Problem-Oriented Policing.

How do burglars get in?

About two-thirds of burglaries involve forced entry using simple tools, commonly at side and back doors. About one-third involve unlocked entry through windows, basement openings or garage doors. Locking up consistently addresses a meaningful share of the risk at no cost.

Am I more likely to be burgled again after a break-in?

Yes. ASU's review reports previously targeted homes are up to four times more likely to be burglarized, with any subsequent burglary most likely within six weeks. Act quickly on repairs, locks and lighting in that window.

Sources

Where these figures come from

ASU Center for Problem-Oriented Policing — Burglary of Single-Family Houses · retrieved 2026-07-26
ASU Center for Problem-Oriented Policing — False Burglar Alarms · retrieved 2026-07-26